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IS EVERYTHING SO GOOD WITH BREXIT?

 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to withdraw Britain from the EU on 31 October under any conditions – even if this would dramatically break ties with the European Union. This was told by Iliya Kusa, the UIF expert on international politics and the Middle East issue.

Britain will face a number of risks after Brexit. Risk number one – large economic and financial losses. The British economy will become weaker. Itʼs about the tens of billions of pounds that London will have to pay as compensation for Britain leaving the EU and this way harming other European economies. This means the restoration of customs control at the border. The queues, traffic jams will appear. It will be necessary to revise the entire international legal framework of trade relations between Britain and all EU countries. This requires herculean work for several years to restore it all. Perhaps it will take less than a year, if all goes very well and the deal is not extensively revised.

The second risk is political. For the United Kingdom itself. Northern Ireland and Scotland voted against leaving the European Union and still insist on this. Over time, their position has been changing. In 2017-2018, they were totally against leaving the EU, but then they softened the rhetoric a bit. They said they were ready to withdraw and not tear the country apart, but the deal had to be fair and be the one that Scots and Northern Irish could benefit from. Now their position has become even tougher because Boris Johnson does not want any deal at all. This is the risk of the collapse of the country. No one knows what will happen when Britain withdraws, and, for example, Northern Ireland will not want to.

Inna Gordienko

PR-director of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future

+380 44 537-17-78

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