» Forecasts » 2024 is the point of certainty. Forecast of UIF experts

2024 is the point of certainty. Forecast of UIF experts

UIF experts presented scenarios for further developments at the front line, in international politics, the economy, and energy sectors, and reported on the state of human capital in Ukraine by the end of 2024.

UIF Executive Director Anatoliy Amelin noted that when the world is in a moment of uncertainty, our experts aimed to understand whether there is a point of certainty for Ukraine and what it consists of.

Below, you can find the remarks of the Institute’s experts regarding the areas mentioned above 👇

Iliya Kusa, UIF International Policy expert:
“Ukraine’s main foreign policy task for 2024 is to preserve the status quo established in 2022. The resources and opportunities to increase the number of our partners and allies in Ukraine have become much weaker now, and there is a need to maintain the positions mostly present in the EU and NATO countries.”

Ihar Tyshkevich, UIF expert on Domestic Policy and chief expert on Russian studies:
“In 2024, there will be two “windows of opportunity” for the start of peace talks in Ukraine. However, the key issue is not the dates but the contours of the ceasefire agreements. Here, most scenarios carry the risks of both internal political destabilization and the resumption of hostilities after a certain time. To reach a positive scenario of exiting the war, the political leadership of the country must solve the task of maintaining the level of legitimacy (both its own and the “legitimacy of the war”), organizational and informational strengthening, as well as maintaining the level of external support.”

Yana Lavryk, UIF Economy program expert:
“Today, we are in conditions of high uncertainty and unpredictability. The economic development scenario will largely depend on the situation at the front, the political situation inside the country, and the amount of international financial aid. Any drastic changes in the policy of our Western partners or some extraordinary political decisions may lead to changes in economic parameters, such as the hryvnia exchange rate, inflation, etc. For this reason, UIF assessed four scenarios depending on the amount of financial assistance to Ukraine and the actions of martial law, described in detail in the forecast document.”

Andrian Prokip, UIF Energy program expert:
“We will enter the autumn-winter period of 2024-2025 with a shortage of electric power capacity, the size of which will be determined by the ability to protect the power system from shelling and, therefore, from the supply of military aid from partners. The enemy will emphasize strikes on the frontline areas, exacerbating territorial imbalances in the energy system and creating threats to gas and coal production, which will be in the zone of additional risk in the event of enemy offensive attempts in the summer.”

Mykola Skyba, expert of the UIF Education program:
“One of the key problems of human capital development in Ukraine is the catastrophic demographic situation. As of 2024, the population reduction index is more than 1.0%. A prolonged phase of full-scale invasion only accelerates this process. The country continues to lose its attractiveness in the eyes of human talents. Currently, there are at least three scenarios for the development of the demographic situation in the country, which are discussed in the Forecast.”

The full text of the report “2024 – Where is the point of certainty. UIF Expert Forecast” can be found here.

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