The world is awaiting a new financial and economic crisis.
In the case of the beginning of the crisis, Ukraine should be prepared for the fact that we will not be able to finance foreign debt and raise new funding. Also, the cost of raw materials assets that we export will decline, respectively, foreign currency earnings will fall. We can experience a serious wave of devaluation, inflation, impoverishment of the population.
The wave of the crisis, which will reach Europe, will make the most of the jobs that are taken today by Ukrainian “gastarbeiters” unneeded. The transfers to Ukraine made by “gastarbeiters” will reduce in number. If we expect that these transfers will amount to $12 billion this year, next year it could be less than $10 billion.
Is there a way out?
- The systemic strategy of economic development, the experts of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future are now working at.
- Fiscal policy. In order to attract investments to Ukraine, we need to even out the risk-return profile. One such instrument is the replacement of the income tax with the tax on the withdrawn capital.
- Legal system. We see an improvement in the quality of justice in Ukraine, but it is critically low compared to other jurisdictions that investors are looking at.
- Energy agenda together with the change in the trade balance.
- Lifting the moratorium on land.