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Why has Putin lost?

The Russian-Ukrainian war continues, but the fact that the Russian Federation is doomed to defeat is objectively evident.

Putin’s fatal mistake of invading Ukraine with a full-scale war and a number of strategic and tactical mistakes have set in motion the mechanism of the downfall of the largest modern empire, Russia. When and how this will happen remains an open question, but it is already possible to name a number of indisputable facts that will one way or another lead to the defeat of the Russian Federation not only on the battlefield but also make Russia’s development impossible for at least the next decade.

From the beginning, the Russian military intelligence could not get hold of proper information about our country. Over time, it became clear to everyone that the equipment of the Russian soldier is on average outdated and less functional than the Ukrainian one, and the efficiency and coherence of their army is very far from the level of the “second army of the world”. On the battlefield, the Russian army is suffering huge losses of personnel and equipment, and the air defence systems of the invaders do not meet the stated parameters.

Technological development of the Russian Federation is in a big hole. More and more countries and foreign companies are distancing themselves from Russia: governments of various countries are introducing technological sanctions, banning the export and import of certain goods, and foreign companies voluntarily stop their activities in the Russian Federation. Russian manufacturers are being excluded from international production chains. Russian industry is losing access to technologies, components, and equipment. The dependence of the Russian economy on Western imports is very high.

According to the latest forecast of the International Energy Agency [1], Russia has actually lost the energy market of Europe, which is key for it, and as a result, it will never be able to surpass the indicators of production and export of energy resources achieved in 2021 and is beginning to lose its status of a leading global energy player. Despite the fact that natural gas is not the main export product of the Russian Federation, it plays a key role in the loss of the Russian energy industry.

In the medium-term perspective, the Russian Federation will experience an acute shortage of qualified labour without options for its replenishment and will face gradual degradation of higher education. This, in turn, can cause irreversible consequences for Russian industry: a drop in the level of workers’ skills, with no possibility of correcting the situation. In particular, growth problems in national autonomies, where there is no developed industry and labour markets are limited, lead to migration.

In addition, Russia has already lost strategically in the context of foreign policy, since the RF had not got engaged practical support of any country, it has no real allies for the war in Ukraine; the aggression allowed NATO to increase the number of its members, to launch large-scale rearmament programs, and to unfold regular direct military support to Ukraine, which has never happened before; the war gave the US a new basis for strengthening its position and expansion in the world, expanding its control over Europe and strengthening cooperation with non-European allies in Asia, the Middle East and Africa; Russia has lost exclusive opportunities to influence the former Soviet republics; the RF forced itself into strategic dependence on a narrow circle of partners who will take advantage of the weakening of the Russian Federation and of its isolation.

Read more about each of the areas in which Russia is losing every day and every hour in this paper.