The next five years could cost Ukraine up to 300,000 jobs, while 5–7 single-industry towns risk losing the enterprises their economies depend on. These are the findings of the UIF study “The Cost of Delay”: industry lost 810,000 jobs over 2021–2024, and keeping the current operating conditions unchanged will cost the country $260–300 billion in forgone GDP, exports, taxes and jobs by 2035. These findings prompted the two organisations to begin working together.
The Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF) and the Federation of Trade Unions of Ukraine (FPU) have signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to seek answers to these challenges together. The document was signed by Anatoliy Amelin, Executive Director and co-founder of UIF, and Serhii Byzov, Head of the FPU.
“We can already see that the scenario described in our industrial study is materialising faster than expected. Our shared task is to prevent further economic decline,” — says Anatoliy Amelin.
“Our main task is to restore trust in the Federation, rebuild its reputation and strengthen its organisational capacity. That is what we are working on today,” — emphasises Serhii Byzov.
The cooperation is built on complementarity. The Ukrainian Institute for the Future, as an independent analytical centre, specialises in foresight, strategic analysis and economic impact assessment: it develops economic scenarios and identifies systemic risks. The FPU is the country’s largest trade union association, representing around three million workers and with deep knowledge of sectoral and regional realities.
Areas of cooperation:
- Industrial policy. Scenarios for sectors under pressure, mechanisms for reskilling workers, and a shared position with employers on a new industrial policy.
- The Federation’s strategy. Comparative analysis of trade union models in other countries, systems of engagement with public authorities, and defining strategic objectives for the leadership team.
- Legislation and European integration. Improving social and labour legislation and aligning it with EU norms.
- Human capital. Developing human capital and analysing the social consequences of economic transformations.
- Regional communities. Developing a system of adult civic education based on the Scandinavian Bildung model, whose historical Ukrainian equivalent is the Prosvita movement.
- Veterans’ policy. Preparing society for veterans’ reintegration, recognising them as an integral part of society rather than a separate group.
- Social dialogue. Analytical support for the trade union side in negotiations with the government and employers.
UIF will also help the FPU build its development strategy and strengthen the influence of trade unions on the shaping of state policy in the sphere of labour. Strong trade unions are needed by the economy as a counterweight that balances the interests of the state, business and workers.
“We want to provide the best analysis to support decision-making. An independent analytical centre can show the full picture, the systemic interconnections in the economy, and propose development scenarios without a conflict of interest,” — explains Anatoliy Amelin.
