2020 — the year of the start of the potential economic crisis, which will lead to a slump in commodity prices and foreign exchange inflow into Ukraine. And we still pay our debts in foreign currency.
As a result, the exchange rate may exceed 40 UAH per 1 USD and more. Predicting the exchange rate is a thankless job, but the average salary will be less than 250 USD. If we assess the potential for wage growth in Ukraine, provided that the current growth rate is maintained, then in 2030 it will reach 1200 USD (511 USD at current year’s prices).
The only way to increase wages is by generating employment:
— via the creation of the best conditions for the attraction of investors;
— via the encouraging of entrepreneurship.
New parliamentary mono-majority has a chance, but whether they will use it — that remains to be seen.
Anatoly Amelin, director of economic programmes of the UIF
First published: Новое Время