Over 800 attacks on railway infrastructure in 2025 alone — and not a single train stopped. Ukraine’s experience under sustained hybrid aggression has become a reference point for transport security across Europe.
The World Bank’s fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4, February 2025) documents $176 billion in direct infrastructure damage since the full-scale invasion. The transport sector absorbed $78 billion of that figure: 26,000 kilometres of roads, nearly 10,000 kilometres of railway, 126 stations and 19 airports destroyed or damaged. Total reconstruction needs are estimated at $524 billion over ten years — approximately 2.8 times Ukraine’s 2024 GDP. The authors calculate that preventive investment in infrastructure resilience costs 10 to 15 times less than post-attack reconstruction.
The cyberattack on Ukrzaliznytsia on 23 March 2025 is the clearest illustration of what resilience looks like under real conditions. Custom-built malware disabled ticketing and digital communications systems across the network. No train was delayed. Staff activated a Soviet-era closed telephone network — previously considered redundant — doubled the number of ticket windows at major stations and partially reverted to paper-based procedures. After 89 hours of continuous operations, online services were restored and more than 12,000 passengers purchased tickets immediately. Physical recovery proved equally instructive: the railway bridge in Irpin was rebuilt in 29 days using modular bridge technology and 18 equipment sets provided through World Bank RELINC financing.
For the Nordic and Baltic states — already contending with undersea sabotage, drone incursions and GPS jamming — this experience carries direct operational relevance. Ten incidents targeting underwater infrastructure were recorded in the Baltic Sea over fourteen months. GNSS interference in the region increased approximately twentyfold in 2025 compared to the previous year. The Copenhagen airport incident of September 2025 resulted in a four-hour suspension of operations, at least 109 cancelled flights and disruption for more than 20,000 passengers.
The policy paper, authored by Volodymyr Shulmeister, Director of Infrastructure Programmes at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future (UIF), and Anatoliy Amelin, UIF Executive Director and Co-founder, sets out concrete recommendations across three time horizons — from immediate audits of analogue backup systems and pre-positioning of modular bridges, to Finland’s long-term transition to standard European gauge and the institutionalisation of total defence principles in the transport sector.
This publication was created by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future with the support of the Askold and Dir Foundation, administered by ISAR Unity as part of the project “Strong Civil Society in Ukraine – a Driver of Reforms and Democracy” funded by Norway and Sweden. The content of the publication is the responsibility of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future and does not reflect the views of the governments of Norway, Sweden, or ISAR Unity.
