31 May, 2017 0 12415
Text of the Dmytro Nekrasov’s report “Limits of Russian strength”, published with the support of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future
Despite the fact that as a result of economic sanctions and falling oil prices the Russian economy experienced a painful crisis, at present it has already managed to adapt to the new situation. The level of support for Putin's political regime within the country has not only declined in this period, but rather has increased.
The reserves accumulated by the Russian authorities in the period of high oil prices, combined with low government debt and balanced budget policy, will allow the Russian state in the medium term to save resources for carrying out an aggressive foreign policy and ensure financial stability even with a radical fall in oil prices.
Economic sanctions certainly influence the Russian economy. However, the real effect of sanctions has exclusively long-term character and does not affect Russia's ability to fulfill an aggressive foreign policy on a mid-term horizon of 5 years. Sanctions themselves also cannot influence the medium term stability of the Russian political regime.